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Don Scott
I thought it would be a good idea to introduce you to
weight. This is about Don Scott and his methodology ' Don Scott was a true
Australian Professional Gambler. We are going to learn all about weight
and the important role 'weight' plays in horse racing.
Whilst I am in negotiations to secure the copyright and
resale rights, we'll just highlight what Don Scott had to say about
weight.
It is largely a study of weights which enables the
professional punter to swing the betting percentages in his favor. Weights
are the basis of thoroughbred horse racing. The more weight the horse
carries the slower it will run. The official handicapper, according to the
rules of racing, has the task of allocating the weights carried by horses
of varying ability in order to equalize their chances of winning. If
horses were not handicapped, the vast majority would never win a race.
In theory, if the weights are fair, all the horses
should pass the winning post together in a multiple dead-heat. But this
never happens. The official handicapper allocates the weights for a race,
days or weeks in advance and basis his judgment on the past performances
of the horses involved. He cannot possibly assess the many other variables
that will influence the outcome of the race. These include the fitness of
the horse on race day, the state of the going, the post position, the
ability of the jockey and the way the way the race is run.
The professional punter, taking such factors into
consideration, can give bonuses or impose penalties when he, in turn
handicaps the field. He can predict more accurately where the horses
should finish than the official handicapper.
Despite all the variables in racing, most professionals
agree that relative weight is the only reliable guide to the way a horse
will perform. The times of races are misleading. They differ greatly
because of weather, track conditions and race strategy.
The weight rating method of assessing form is based on
results over many years that indicate there is a measurable connection
between weight and winning margins.
A 1.5kg difference in weight carried can be considered
roughly equal to a one length margin at the finish, if all other things
are equal.
In other words, if two horses are evenly matched in
ability, barrier position and so on, but one is carrying 1.5kg less than
the other, it should win by one length. This is an old theory but a sound
one.
Not all experts agree that a weight difference of 1.5kg
always equals a length. They argue that weight is less important over a
shorter distance and more important over a longer distance. In their
opinion the weight scale should be altered according to the distance of a
race. They suggest the following variations.
| From |
900m to 1100m |
1 length = 3kg |
| From |
1200m to 1350m |
1 length = 2.5kg |
| From |
1400 to 1550m |
1 length = 2kg |
| From |
1600m to 2000m |
1 length - 1.5kg |
| From |
Over 2000m |
1 length = 1kg |
This group of experts seem to ignore the fact that the
longer the race, the slower the pace and the less pressure on horses; and
conversely the shorter the race, the faster the pace and the more pressure
on horses. I experimented with the variable scale for some years. In the
end I came back to the old theory of 1.5kg always equaling a length. It is
simple, accurate and reliable.
The weight equivalents for different margins.
| Margin |
Kg |
Margin |
Kg |
Margin |
Kg |
| 1/4 |
1/2 |
3 |
5 |
5 3/4 |
9 |
| 1/2 |
1 |
3 1/4 |
5 |
6 |
9 1/2 |
| 3/4 |
1 |
3 1/2 |
5 1/2 |
6 1/4 |
10 |
| 1 |
1 1/2 |
3 3/4 |
6 |
6 1/2 |
10 1/2 |
| 1 1/4 |
2 |
4 |
6 1/2 |
6 3/4 |
11 |
| 1 1/2 |
2 1/2 |
4 1/4 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
| 1 3/4 |
3 |
4 1/2 |
7 |
7 1/2 |
12 |
| 2 |
3 |
4 3/4 |
7 1/2 |
7 1/2 |
12 1/2 |
| 2 1/4 |
3 1/2 |
5 |
8 |
7 3/4 |
12 1/2 |
| 2 1/2 |
4 |
5 1/2 |
8 1/2 |
8 |
13 |
| 2 3/4 |
4 1/2 |
5 1/2 |
9 |
|
|
To illustrate the scale: - If Horse A defeated Horse B by 2 1/2
lengths. Horse B would need to meet Horse A on 4kg better terms at their
next outing to have an equal chance, all other factors being the same. If
Horse A defeated Horse C by 6 lengths Horse C would need to meet Horse A
on 9 1/2 kg better terms on their next outing. If Horse A defeated Horse D
by 7 1/2 lengths. Horse D would need to meet Horse A on 12 kg better
terms.
If all racing calculations were as simple as this, the
punter would have no problems. But very rarely do the same horses keep
competing against one another week after week. Horse from other races,
other classes and other areas keep appearing to make the punter's task
more difficult and his figures more complicated. For this reason I had to
find a way of rating the classes of all races in all areas. I had to know
the differences in class and weight between a Gundagai maiden and a
Melbourne Cup and all races in between.
In rating the classes my first task was to find out the
weight differences between them according to the handicappers' published
weights. In other words, if the handicappers thought there were six kilos
between a welter and an open sprint in Sydney, what did they think were
the weight differences between other races?
For example, each class of race in Sydney on Saturdays
rates in kilograms according to my figures from 57 to 72. A restricted
handicap rates 57kg and a quality handicap 72kg. The same figures can be
used anywhere.
The weights used relate exactly to the 2 YO and 3 YO
weights in my modified ' weight for age' scale. - I have used other
comparable figures in the past (e.g. 17 - 32), but the present figures are
the most convenient and avoid the problem of minus ratings. You will not
find these figures anywhere else but here.
By using these class and weight rating figures you can
compare horses from different races, different classes and different
areas. To my knowledge no such information has ever been published. - A
safe and accurate way of comparing all horses is now available to every
punter.
You have to be very careful of course, to note
variations in the handicappers methods of allocating weights. If the
horses nominated for a race are very ordinary, he will expand the weights
by giving the top weight more weight than average. If the horses nominated
are very classy, he will contract the weights by giving the top weight
less weight than average. This practice applies particularly to 2 YO and 3
YO events.
However, in general, you can rate races easily and
accurately by using tables.
Pittsburgh Phil was a famous American gambler in the
late 19th century. Hi won a huge fortune on the turf by basing his
calculations on weight and by backing horses that were over the odds. He
certainly did not die in the workhouse. I read his story in 1953 and
adopted some of his betting principles.
Huge weight disadvantages can stop champions and kill
moderates. Huge weight advantages can allow ordinary horses to score
supposedly miraculous wins. Those punters who carefully analyze weights
can avoid most of racing's "tragedies" and profit from some of racing's
"miracles". The rest will continue to lose their money and get angrier and
angrier.
As important as analyzing a race by the weight rate
method is the assessment of the chance of each horse winning in terms of
betting odds. To do this, you have to understand how the bookmaker odds
are framed.
Bookmakers make a profit by manipulating the odds. They
attempt to retain 10% or more no matter what horse wins. In other words if
you backed every horse in the race to win $100 you would lose at least
$10. Of course bookmakers often cannot 'balance their books' in this
manner because the betting public want to support particular horses in a
race and ignore the others. If one of the horses heavily supported by
punters, the favorite or second favorite wins, bookmakers lose
substantially. But if an outsider gets up which nobody has backed they get
a 'skinner' and make sufficient profit to offset their losses on favored
horses which have won other races.
In a volatile betting market when the bookmakers ring
is strong it is sometimes possible to back every horse in the race and
still be certain of making a profit. On these occasions every horse in the
race offered at value odds by some bookmakers at some stage. But you need
to be quick, even psychic, to take advantage of the opportunity because
you can guarantee eventual starting prices will be framed to give
bookmakers their usual advantage.
In general, the bigger the fields the better the
bookmakers' 'over round' percentage. In some feature races such as the
Melbourne Cop, bookmakers' percentages can be as high as 20 or 25 percent.
usually the smaller the field the narrower the bookmakers' betting edge.
The TAB/TOTE operates differently. It returns only
final odds and takes it's percentage before the odds are worked out so it
never runs the slightest risk of losing.
This percentage is why the TAB/TOTE ALWAYS wins and the
bookmakers usually win and this is also the reason why the majority of
punters must lose, and most do.
The only way to overcome this mathematical disadvantage
is to frame your own odds. Using The A Rating Method - you will be able to
assess more accurately a horse's chance of winning than the bookmakers or
the TAB/TOTE. In addition, you ONLY bet when the odds available are equal
to your own odds or better.
This is How You Do It:-
Let us assume you have selected three chances in a ten
horse race. Because you reasonably expect one of your selections to win in
9 out of ten races you put the probability at 90%.
But to give yourself a 10% edge just as the bookmakers
do, you reduce this and frame your odds up to 80%.
Now we'll examine the horses you have picked. lets say
you have rated them at 61kg, 59.5kg and 56kg respectively. The others are
all way back below 50kg. According to your ratings, horse A should win one
length ahead of horse B with horse C another two lengths behind.
So what should the odds be?
Horse A rating 61 - your odds would be 5/4 - 45%
Horse B rating 59.5 - your odds would be 5/2 - 29%
Horse C rating 56 - your odds would be 16 - 6%
Total 80%
to be
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Bad Betting Habits
So you want to kick your bad betting
habits and replace them with new
resolve, new discipline and new
patience? Well, sounds like a great idea
to me.
The key question, though, is: How
best do you achieve such a state of
betting bliss? Like everything else in
these busy times, it's a matter of
setting goals, picking your spots, and
making sure that every invested dollar
achieves maximum return.
In this series of articles, I am
going to take you through 100 betting
ideas. They will cover the full spectrum
of racing selection and investment. Once
you have studied the 100 ideas 1 am
confident you will be a better and,
ultimately, a richer, punter.
The beginning of a fresh year is just
the right time to get your 'house' in
order to start the long haul to punting
respectability.
(1) SETTING TARGETS
The targets that any punter sets have to
be within the realms of reality. If
you're a $10 punter don't set yourself
the goal of winning thousands of
dollars. Estimate your annual turnover
and then aim at winning 20 per cent. If
you bet $50 a week over, say, 50 weeks
that's a turnover of $2500. Your target
for profit should be 20 per cent of
that, which is $500. Most punters will
turnover a couple of hundred dollars a
week. In that case the annual turnover
is $10,000 and the 20 per cent target is
$2000.
(2) MAKE FORM STUDY A HABIT
To make any sense out of racing, you
have to make form study a habit. Decide,
before you start anything, how many days
a week you are going to bet, and put
aside special time to study the form for
the meetings you are going to cover. And
remember that you are going to have to
budget for 'extras' like form guides,
videos, magazines, any computerization
you use, transport to and from the
tracks - all that sort of thing (even to
allowing for the drinks and food you eat
at the track or at the TAB). Get as much
in the way of form information at your
disposal as you can. Knowledge is power.
(3) THE RIGHT FRAME OF MIND
Panic never won a war. Panic never wins
the betting war, either. Once your have
set yourself goals, chosen your bets,
and decided on an approach, don't panic
if things do not go as planned. If you
have faith in what you are doing - in
your selection process and the
management approach you are using to bet
the selections - then panic is uncalled
for. Keep calm.
(4) MAKING HAY WHILE THE SUN SHINES
We've all had those days when everything
seems to go right. Yet how many of us
truly capitalize on the sunshine days?
Not many, I bet. The trouble is that
punters are always under betting winners
and over betting losers.
This is why staking is important. Your
armory should include the capacity to
upgrade the size of your bets when you
enter the 'supreme confidence' phase.
This is the time when you know that
everything seems right, and that it's
your day to make a killing. One extra
great day per year can lift your profits
enormously.
(5) GET YOURSELF A STYLE
There are so many different approaches
to selecting and betting. You have to
choose one that suits your personal
style. It's no good taking on a staking
plan that might call for big bets if you
haven't got the stomach to hand over the
big bills. Tailor your cloth to suit
your needs, and what you can handle
psychologically. You must develop a
style of betting that suits you 100 per
cent. If you hate quinellas and
trifectas, don't bother with them. Stick
with what makes you comfortable.
(6) FINDING THE RIGHT RACES
Ah, easier said than done. Too many
punters simply bet too many races. If
you've set goals, and you have your
selection method in hand, you should
know which races to choose. Study the
past to find the clues to the future.
Which races have served you best? Which
types of races have been dead losses?
Stick with the winners, axe the losers.
(7) DON'T MISS A HORSE
When you study form, make sure you study
it properly. A common failing is to get
a 'fancy' for a particular horse and
allow that attachment to cloud your
judgment. Go through the form of every
horse in the race. Many punters even
start from the rank outsiders and work
down to the favorite. In this way, they
can avoid the temptation to write off
the long shots because they just can't
be bothered looking at their form.
(8) THE MAJOR FACTORS
Certain elements always have to be
assessed when you are doing the form.
They are Class, Weight, Form, Fitness.
These can be called the key factors of
form. You must determine if a horse is
up to the class of the race; you must
decide if he can carry his weight and
win; you must decide if his form is good
enough; and finally you have to assess
whether a horse is fit to win. Always
bear these things in mind, and answer
each point objectively. A simple 'tick
test' can be used against each factor
for each horse. Why not make up your own
ruled sheet and have hundreds printed at
your nearest quick-print shop?
(9) NEW FORM, OLD FORM
When you put a horse through the form
'wringer' you should put more emphasis
on recent form than on old form. One
Brisbane professional says he puts a
limit of 18 months on form lines, and
always takes more notice of what a horse
has done in the latest six months. But
sometimes you can find the key to a race
through a bit of old form, so it can
never be ruled out entirely.
(10) ABILITY AT THE DISTANCE
One of the questions you must ask
yourself is whether a selection can run
the distance of the race. In most cases,
the answer will be clear. The horse will
have previous winning form over the
trip. Often, though, the answer is not
so clear. The horse may be untried at
the distance. This is when you have to
use your skill and judgment. Even if a
horse is a winner at the journey, he may
now face a rise in class and you have to
decide if he can meet this class
challenge and still get the distance.
Then there's the question of weight. A
horse may win over 1200m with 51 and
52kg but can it carry 56 or 57 kg and
win? Take a lot of care on the distance
factor. Try to imagine the race in your
mind. Look at the other runners to judge
for early speed and late-closers.
(11) FOLLOW THE RIGHT STABLES
It goes without saying that some
trainers and jockeys dominate racing. We
all know who they are. It is especially
important that in major races you give a
lot of thought to the entries from the
leading stables. History shows they will
win a significant number of Group 1, 2
and 3 races.
(12) IF DOUBTFUL, DON'T BET
Punters are always wracked by doubts and
fear. This is normal. Even the most
seasoned and professional punter will be
assailed by worries of various kinds.
Some races will end up with you being
confused by doubt. Will 1 bet, won't 1
bet? If there are doubts in your mind,
if you can't really choose between
various runners, then simply stay out.
It won't hurt to miss a race or two.
There will always be plenty more. Never
be afraid of missing a winner. You will
avoid backing more losers than you will
miss backing winners. Caution is good
sense in these instances of doubt.
(13) STAY COMMITTED
Once you have decided on the manner in
which you choose your selections, and on
how you will bet them, stay committed to
that course. Don't be sidetracked by
someone else's tips or urgings. Bet your
horses and leave it at that.
There is little long-term value in
entrusting your cash to your mate's
tips. If you've put in the hard work
yourself, you should be quite satisfied
that you have done enough and bet
accordingly.
(14) BET AGAINST THE MASS
Perhaps the only way any punter is going
to make a long-term profit is by gaining
value with the invested dollar. This
means that you will have to bet against
the public if you are to have any
chance. Don't be suckered into backing
under-valued horses; there's no future
in it. Remember that if the bookies are
posting a horse at evens (50 per cent)
they will have given it a true value of
less than that, probably at least 6/4
(40 per cent). That means you are
accepting poor value if you accept their
even money. Make sure any bet you make
is a value bet according to your
informed research and analysis.
(15) MAKE YOUR OWN MARKET
It's not so hard to make your own
betting market. You can do it off the
top of your head. Price your main
fancies first. Ask yourself what price
you would be prepared to take about your
top pick? Would you back it at 6/4 or
would that seem foolish? Does 5/2 make
you feel comfortable? If so, make that
the cut-off point, or perhaps even a
half point longer, for safety's sake. If
this approach doesn't appeal, then look
for a mechanical way of assessment.
Allot points and work out the price that
way.
(16) OVER BETTING DANGERS
Never over bet. Chain betting or
reckless race-to-race betting will never
get you anywhere. You have to pick your
spots. Keep the number of bets under
control. You don't have to restrict
yourself to just one. But something
around 5 or 6 should be enough for the
day. That amount gives you enough action
and the chance of survival.
How To Place Bet On Favorites For A
Living >
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