Form
Have you ever given any consideration to why most punters lose? If you have
heard about this statement before, have you ever considered doing something
about it? Changing your methods, Perhaps you fall into this category. Perhaps
you keep making the same mistakes, year in and year out. Perhaps YOU are one of
those who never seem to show any profit at the end of the year. But you do
everything right don't you?
YOU know some punters make a profit, you've read about these people. Why
can't I? you might ask yourself. These punters who are successful probably know
very little more than you already know about horse racing, BUT - They have the
knowledge to be selective and have the quality of patience. It's why they make a
profit. It's not 'inside info' it's not some fantastic win all system. It's none
of that... it's simply being patient, choosing your selection wisely and betting
in the right way. THIS is the only difference between being a winner in this
game or a loser. Nothing else.
YOU can change this by following some simple and basic guidelines. You could
buy every book on the subject offered to you all over the internet, but, you'll
still not be making a profit if you simply rely on following 'set rules' It's a
big problem all punters have this problem.
Simple techniques for selecting winners and/or place getters (backforplace).
A little common sense and avoiding set systems and plans of selection will go a
long way. Don't you know, everyone follows systems with set rules?
The first place to look on the day's card is the form, number of runners,
quality of the race. It's a good idea to have some set rules that allow for
flexibility based on personal experience and judgment, that's true.
Here are some guidelines:
When looking at the form, we're really only interested in recent form based
over the last 30 days.
The form should obviously be good form such as 321 or 331 or 221 or 222 etc.
All other runners should have worse form such as 456 or 713 or 345 and
similar.
Here's one of the first mistakes many punters make. They look at the form
only, choose the best form and leave it at that. This is okay as a starting
point but there are further refinements that need to be taken into
consideration.
It's necessary to look deeper. What are the race conditions in comparison to
the previous races for your chosen selection? What is the distance? Whose' the
Jockey? There are many questions to be asked when making your final selection.
Just because the form looks good, doesn't mean this selection has any chance of
winning or being placed. Consider this scenario:
Race 1 at Newmarket UK or Doomben Aus. - We have a typical handicap race with
12 runners. All of the runners have form similar to 3-4-5-4-6 on their last
runs, BUT one horse has the form: 5 - 4 -2 - 2 - 1 Wow, here's an obvious winner
or at least a place getter. Or is it?
Checking a little deeper might make all the difference between you winning or
losing! What about this? All of the other runners in this race, raced a race
similar to what they are used to racing and have been trained to do? - Your
horse with good form however had only been racing in minor class races. It's the
first time it's up against this sort of competition.
Still digging a little deeper, you find that on it's last 3 runs there were
only 5 runners in each race?.... The Jockey did really well, that's for sure. He
has managed to get a second place twice and with his last run he won!...........
Going back to the fourth and fifth last race you find this horse only came 4th
and 5th, and there were 10, 7 and 15 runners against it. Furthermore it was a
different jockey on those occasions. Delving back even further, you find this
Jockey on this horse has never won a race or even been placed.
What about today's race?.... oh, look..... it's that jockey again! The jockey
who has never won on this horse.
This changes whether or not you would make this a selection for any type of
bet. The chances are this horse will come nowhere and will still be running next
week before it finishes this race.
This is the difference. Take a similar scenario, Newmarket, Doomben or
Belmont Park, wherever: Your chosen horse has all of the above form and so
do the other runners: BUT - this time, your chosen horse has run this distance,
he's run it on this track, he's won on this track, he's in the same class of
race and he's got the same jockey this time too...
In this case, this is a good bet...chances are he'll win.............. for an
almost certainty, this horse will be placed, and that's what we want.
This time, you will profit. Do this analyses every time, and you are going to
profit. Disregard ANY race selection that doesn't fit this scenario.
Hints from
Malcolm Maclean
My Way
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