| Don Scott WINNING
by Don ScottCopyright Don Scott | I thought it would be a good idea to introduce you to weight. This is about Don Scott and his methodology ' Don Scott was a true Australian Professional Gambler. We are going to learn all about weight and the important role 'weight' plays in horse racing. Whilst I am in negotiations to secure the copyright and resale rights, we'll just highlight what Don Scott had to say about weight. It is largely a study of weights which enables the professional punter to swing the betting percentages in his favor. Weights are the basis of thoroughbred horse racing. The more weight the horse carries the slower it will run. The official handicapper, according to the rules of racing, has the task of allocating the weights carried by horses of varying ability in order to equalize their chances of winning. If horses were not handicapped, the vast majority would never win a race. In theory, if the weights are fair, all the horses should pass the winning post together in a multiple dead-heat. But this never happens. The official handicapper allocates the weights for a race, days or weeks in advance and basis his judgment on the past performances of the horses involved. He cannot possibly assess the many other variables that will influence the outcome of the race. These include the fitness of the horse on race day, the state of the going, the post position, the ability of the jockey and the way the way the race is run. The professional punter, taking such factors into consideration, can give bonuses or impose penalties when he, in turn handicaps the field. He can predict more accurately where the horses should finish than the official handicapper. Despite all the variables in racing, most professionals agree that relative weight is the only reliable guide to the way a horse will perform. The times of races are misleading. They differ greatly because of weather, track conditions and race strategy. The weight rating method of assessing form is based on results over many years that indicate there is a measurable connection between weight and winning margins. A 1.5kg difference in weight carried can be considered roughly equal to a one length margin at the finish, if all other things are equal. In other words, if two horses are evenly matched in ability, barrier position and so on, but one is carrying 1.5kg less than the other, it should win by one length. This is an old theory but a sound one. Not all experts agree that a weight difference of 1.5kg always equals a length. They argue that weight is less important over a shorter distance and more important over a longer distance. In their opinion the weight scale should be altered according to the distance of a race. They suggest the following variations. | From | 900m to 1100m | 1 length = 3kg | | From | 1200m to 1350m | 1 length = 2.5kg | | From | 1400 to 1550m | 1 length = 2kg | | From | 1600m to 2000m | 1 length - 1.5kg | | From | Over 2000m | 1 length = 1kg | This group of experts seem to ignore the fact that the longer the race, the slower the pace and the less pressure on horses; and conversely the shorter the race, the faster the pace and the more pressure on horses. I experimented with the variable scale for some years. In the end I came back to the old theory of 1.5kg always equaling a length. It is simple, accurate and reliable. The weight equivalents for different margins. | Margin | Kg | Margin | Kg | Margin | Kg | | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3 | 5 | 5 3/4 | 9 | | 1/2 | 1 | 3 1/4 | 5 | 6 | 9 1/2 | | 3/4 | 1 | 3 1/2 | 5 1/2 | 6 1/4 | 10 | | 1 | 1 1/2 | 3 3/4 | 6 | 6 1/2 | 10 1/2 | | 1 1/4 | 2 | 4 | 6 1/2 | 6 3/4 | 11 | | 1 1/2 | 2 1/2 | 4 1/4 | 7 | 7 | 11 | | 1 3/4 | 3 | 4 1/2 | 7 | 7 1/2 | 12 | | 2 | 3 | 4 3/4 | 7 1/2 | 7 1/2 | 12 1/2 | | 2 1/4 | 3 1/2 | 5 | 8 | 7 3/4 | 12 1/2 | | 2 1/2 | 4 | 5 1/2 | 8 1/2 | 8 | 13 | | 2 3/4 | 4 1/2 | 5 1/2 | 9 | | | To illustrate the scale: - If Horse A defeated Horse B by 2 1/2 lengths. Horse B would need to meet Horse A on 4kg better terms at their next outing to have an equal chance, all other factors being the same. If Horse A defeated Horse C by 6 lengths Horse C would need to meet Horse A on 9 1/2 kg better terms on their next outing. If Horse A defeated Horse D by 7 1/2 lengths. Horse D would need to meet Horse A on 12 kg better terms. If all racing calculations were as simple as this, the punter would have no problems. But very rarely do the same horses keep competing against one another week after week. Horse from other races, other classes and other areas keep appearing to make the punter's task more difficult and his figures more complicated. For this reason I had to find a way of rating the classes of all races in all areas. I had to know the differences in class and weight between a Gundagai maiden and a Melbourne Cup and all races in between. In rating the classes my first task was to find out the weight differences between them according to the handicappers' published weights. In other words, if the handicappers thought there were six kilos between a welter and an open sprint in Sydney, what did they think were the weight differences between other races? For example, each class of race in Sydney on Saturdays rates in kilograms according to my figures from 57 to 72. A restricted handicap rates 57kg and a quality handicap 72kg. The same figures can be used anywhere. The weights used relate exactly to the 2 YO and 3 YO weights in my modified ' weight for age' scale. - I have used other comparable figures in the past (e.g. 17 - 32), but the present figures are the most convenient and avoid the problem of minus ratings. You will not find these figures anywhere else but here. By using these class and weight rating figures you can compare horses from different races, different classes and different areas. To my knowledge no such information has ever been published. - A safe and accurate way of comparing all horses is now available to every punter. You have to be very careful of course, to note variations in the handicappers methods of allocating weights. If the horses nominated for a race are very ordinary, he will expand the weights by giving the top weight more weight than average. If the horses nominated are very classy, he will contract the weights by giving the top weight less weight than average. This practice applies particularly to 2 YO and 3 YO events. However, in general, you can rate races easily and accurately by using tables. Pittsburgh Phil was a famous American gambler in the late 19th century. Hi won a huge fortune on the turf by basing his calculations on weight and by backing horses that were over the odds. He certainly did not die in the workhouse. I read his story in 1953 and adopted some of his betting principles. Huge weight disadvantages can stop champions and kill moderates. Huge weight advantages can allow ordinary horses to score supposedly miraculous wins. Those punters who carefully analyze weights can avoid most of racing's "tragedies" and profit from some of racing's "miracles". The rest will continue to lose their money and get angrier and angrier. As important as analyzing a race by the weight rate method is the assessment of the chance of each horse winning in terms of betting odds. To do this, you have to understand how the bookmaker odds are framed. Bookmakers make a profit by manipulating the odds. They attempt to retain 10% or more no matter what horse wins. In other words if you backed every horse in the race to win $100 you would lose at least $10. Of course bookmakers often cannot 'balance their books' in this manner because the betting public want to support particular horses in a race and ignore the others. If one of the horses heavily supported by punters, the favorite or second favorite wins, bookmakers lose substantially. But if an outsider gets up which nobody has backed they get a 'skinner' and make sufficient profit to offset their losses on favored horses which have won other races. In a volatile betting market when the bookmakers ring is strong it is sometimes possible to back every horse in the race and still be certain of making a profit. On these occasions every horse in the race offered at value odds by some bookmakers at some stage. But you need to be quick, even psychic, to take advantage of the opportunity because you can guarantee eventual starting prices will be framed to give bookmakers their usual advantage. In general, the bigger the fields the better the bookmakers' 'over round' percentage. In some feature races such as the Melbourne Cop, bookmakers' percentages can be as high as 20 or 25 percent. usually the smaller the field the narrower the bookmakers' betting edge. The TAB/TOTE operates differently. It returns only final odds and takes it's percentage before the odds are worked out so it never runs the slightest risk of losing. This percentage is why the TAB/TOTE ALWAYS wins and the bookmakers usually win and this is also the reason why the majority of punters must lose, and most do. The only way to overcome this mathematical disadvantage is to frame your own odds. Using The A Rating Method - you will be able to assess more accurately a horse's chance of winning than the bookmakers or the TAB/TOTE. In addition, you ONLY bet when the odds available are equal to your own odds or better. This is How You Do It:- Let us assume you have selected three chances in a ten horse race. Because you reasonably expect one of your selections to win in 9 out of ten races you put the probability at 90%. But to give yourself a 10% edge just as the bookmakers do, you reduce this and frame your odds up to 80%. Now we'll examine the horses you have picked. lets say you have rated them at 61kg, 59.5kg and 56kg respectively. The others are all way back below 50kg. According to your ratings, horse A should win one length ahead of horse B with horse C another two lengths behind. So what should the odds be? Horse A rating 61 - your odds would be 5/4 - 45% Horse B rating 59.5 - your odds would be 5/2 - 29% Horse C rating 56 - your odds would be 16 - 6% Total 80% *Writing in progress* - to be continued | 
